ReFrame's 2025 Predictions are here! Before we enter the new year let's look at the dominant and emergent narratives from 2022 to now.
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Blame game hot takes, economic fears, and narratives about “shadow governments”—the election may be over, but the discourse is just getting started.
We’re back this week with another Signals in the Noise: Election Edition! Team ReFrame continues to monitor the post-election contours of the narrative ecosystem, where coverage continues to be informed by the blame game’s hot takes and takedowns. This edition focuses on content from November 10th to the 17th, though we go back in time to check our hunches and biases.
Here’s the TL;DR
From November 1st to the 17th, conversations about democracy were much lower than conversations about the elections (1.2 million mentions versus 20.4 million mentions). Compared to the same date range in 2022, mentions of democracy are down 81%, a drastic drop in volume. Compared to pop culture trends like “brat summer” (753k mentions) or “Project 2025” (18.3 million mentions), this drop in volume suggests that frames around protecting and saving democracy did not stick or saturate as much as they had in previous election cycles.
While the spike for democracy on November 6th at 208k mentions focused on the Democrats’ betrayal of the working class and their leaders’ waning influence, stories from November 11th to the 17th focus on the ways members of the Democratic party are gearing up to resist Trump’s policies and the threat they pose to “the rule of law.” Potential standoffs set the stage for weeks of unease, especially as the right-wing media ecosystem and MAGA loyalists call this tactic the formation of a shadow government or an insurrection, which is… ironic. These claims continue election stories about election integrity as votes are still being counted and verified in battleground states like Pennsylvania and Arizona. Expect law and order and safety and security narratives to be weaponized to crush dissent, regardless of who is at the front lines of the picket or protest. We can also expect these same narratives to be weaponized against organizations in the attempts to criminalize solidarity with Palestine, fast-tracking legislation to revoke non-profits and NGOs of their 501c3 status.
We track content and conversations about Trump’s picks like it’s the NFL draft. Here are some messages and narratives about the role of government in the post-election discourse:
This week, discussions about the economy and governance are high in volume in relation to The Onion hilariously buying InfoWars and concerns about the economy's future under austerity measures, cronyism, crypto and billionaire pump-and-dump schemes. In spikes about the economy and the cost of living, trending stories and conversations focus on the cost of food and inflation under the Trump administration, highlighting that his economic policies will be a net negative for poor and working class people. While some content and conversations focus on the current administration’s choice of wartime spending over the American people, we note the beginning of attacks on social safety nets like SNAP. Right now these conversations are mostly happening on X and are being leveraged by conservatives and economists. We believe there is a risk that social/government programs will come under fire through racialized disinformation (think wokeness or DEI), values of respectability, and narratives about capitalism, the deserving versus the undeserving, protecting children, and the weaponization of public health and safety. These same values and narratives are playing out in trends and pop culture as popularized in retorts like “just put the fries in the bag, bro,” or “I don’t know what this means, I’m employed,” both of which, at their core, are classist. All of this may help manufacture consent to a range of legislative measures, including stricter guidelines on food stamps and gutting the budget for temporary assistance programs like TANF.
Discussions about swearing off men, popularized in South Korea as the 4B movement, skyrocketed post-election day in response to the potential federal crackdown on women’s rights and Nick Fuentes’ misogynistic “your body, my choice” tirade. 4B is shorthand for the word “no” in Korean and is a protest against violence against women where they opt to revoke their labor from cisgender men, including sex, dating, marriage and childbearing. Young women lead the content and share of voice on Instagram and TikTok. Their content about the “sex strike” features right-wing influencers’ satirical content using narratives rooted in traditional femininity and desirability politics. However, conversations led by South Korean women and leftists in the U.S. are discussing 4B in the U.S. from a different angle, educating their followers on the fact that the movement has a transphobia problem. Within these conversations, there is an outsized focus on bodily autonomy, intimate partner violence (IPV), and the need for community between women and femmes, suggesting there is an opportunity to organize loudspeakers in long-term shared strategy around reproductive rights and freedoms and activate IRL spaces to provide opportunities for cisgender and trans women to organize in and solidarity. As we’ve already clocked, there is a risk that networks of trans-exclusionary radical feminists (TERFs) and sex worker exclusionary radical feminists (SWERFs) will use this as an opportunity to masquerade their gender essentialist anti-trans ideology under the umbrella of 4B content to recruit liberal women (it’s already happening).
We’re rocking with some nuanced post-election hot takes about voting blocs. For Prism, Rann Miller discusses how Black men were scapegoated through the election, while Briana Ureña-Ravelo asks (and answers) questions about the Latine vote. Meanwhile, Julian Rose writes about what “the Left” gets wrong about the South for Scalawag Magazine. Before you dive in, grab a pen, paper, cup of tea and get comfy.
In the aftermath of Hurricanes Helene and Milton, mutual aid groups have not just stepped up to help their neighbors but have also found themselves on the frontlines of disinformation inoculation efforts. Read about the ways these groups promote narratives that demand good governance and structural change to address extreme weather events and shore up the infrastructure needed to prevent disaster.
November 18th honors the Battle of Vertières, a vital fight in Haiti’s liberation struggle. We welcome you to listen to Ayiti Pou Ayiti’s rendering of a battle song of the Haitian Revolution (it’s a protest anthem, too!), reminding us just how sacred archiving stories, photos, songs and chants are to keeping our radical traditions alive.
The narratives swirling around us right now are potent, messy, and constantly shifting—and that’s exactly why we need to make sense of them, together.
Signals in the Noise: Election Edition analyzed the narratives leading up to the 2024 election, focusing on economic issues, immigration, voting rights, race and gender justice. ReFrame’s analysis showed how narrative transcends ideology, taking on different meanings across audiences to shape online discourse. These narratives and the stories and messages that funnel them influenced voter behavior and perceptions of the role of government and governance, policies, candidates and their campaign promises. The mood and tone in election conversations were agitational, authoritative, urgent, concerned, informative, hopeful and empowering. Core values included equity, accountability, compassion, justice, empowerment, autonomy, integrity, community, safety and security.
The media ecosystem moves at a mile a minute, creating a complex narrative terrain where millions of stories and messages intersect and overlap. Some narrative battles challenge people’s core (and sometimes contradictory) beliefs and values; narrative battles allow us to combat harmful stories and messages and determine where and how to pick narrative fights on our terms.
Corporate interests and the needs of the working class clashed in narrative battles over which candidate was better for the economy. These stories and messages highlighted contrasting approaches to economic issues, like inflation or housing, and reflected differences in beliefs and values about class and equity.
Throughout the election season, narratives questioning election integrity and security circulated at the same volume as positive content about GOTV. The right reversed its earlier disapproval of early and mail-in voting and instead pushed messaging urging unity for its preferred candidate.
Demands for a ceasefire and an arms embargo on Israel were permanent fixtures in stories and conversations about the election, from protest voting to post-election blame game discourse.
Mis-and disinformation fueled distrust in electoral processes and led to fears around election day violence and voter intimidation.
Xenophobic depictions of immigrants as threats clashed with scarcity narratives and tensions about resource allocation. These stories, messages and conversations scapegoated immigrants throughout the election cycle.
There was a recognition of Black voting power from both political parties and legacy media, but it bordered on reliance on outdated stereotypes, tokenization and exploitation.
“States rights,” bioessentialism, disinformation and harmful discourse challenged reproductive rights and trans rights across election conversations.
Scarcity narratives demonizing queer and trans people created a wedge between liberal women and the trans community on bodily autonomy.
We understand the narrative landscape as an uneven playing field. In these narrative battles, harmful narratives could deepen societal divides, perpetuate injustice and erode trust in democratic processes. As we prepare for a second Trump administration, it is clear movement strategists, organizers and allied formations must:
Pool our resources, minimize our tactical squabbling and build our narrative infrastructure.
Invest the time and capacity together, especially around the economy, democracy and the role of government, to answer some of the vital narrative questions of our time. What narratives are we working to seed, especially around the economy, democracy, the role of government and safety?
Expand our reach far beyond our bases and inner circles.
Tell better stories: name the enemy, offer compelling alternatives and use plain language to meet folks where they are.
We will need fortified organizers, communicators, influencers and practitioners for the long haul, and that requires our sustained vision, collective power, and unyielding determination. We must fortify our numbers and grow movement communications and narrative infrastructure for the long haul.
These stories, messages and narratives we have elevated will endure through the end of this year, into 2025 and beyond. Team ReFrame will be there every step of the way rigorously assessing the data, staying steadfast and visionary in our interventions and continuing to build the narrative north stars we need.
These are undeniably heavy times. Let’s recap what happened on Election Day and look at the possible paths ahead.
Welcome to the latest issue of Signals in the Noise : Election Edition,
These are undeniably heavy times. The weight of the world can feel crushing as we confront ongoing crises and injustices that surround us. From the ongoing genocide on Palestinian genocide to the re-election of Trump, it's natural and right to feel profound grief — for the countless lives we've lost, the dreams deferred, the futures dimmed. We must allow ourselves to sit fully with these difficult emotions, to let them settle in our bones, but we cannot stay there.
The world we must build, rooted in justice, equity, and liberation for all, will not come easily. It requires our sustained vision, collective power, and unyielding determination. Let us draw strength from the legacies of those who have come before us, from the wisdom of our elders; others devoted to justice and goodness in all corners of the world, and from the knowledge that the many will prevail over the few.
Our work continues.
Onward,
hermelinda cortés
Executive Director, ReFrame
Popular narratives include:
Beyond election stories about his victory, Trump and cryptocurrency, the stock market, questions about tariffs and his deportation plans are among trending searches on November 5th as more people woke up to election results. On the right, influencers and loudspeakers are celebratory, and some are shocked at the result because of the ways they have been conditioned to accepting voter fraud narratives.
We’re entering the post-election narrative horse race which, as predicted, has led to a toxic cocktail across legacy media and social media platforms like X, TikTok, YouTube and Meta about which voter bloc or group of people is to blame for Harris losing. Pick your poison; whether it’s men of color for being too sexist to elect a woman president, the Democrats for supporting genocide and alienating their base in favor of nonexistent Republican support, liberals and their narcissism, trans people for merely existing, the entire South and age-old stereotypes and third party voters (even though the math ain’t mathin’ with this argument), everyone is catching strays. In this blame game, we all lose. However, quiet conversations about Biden’s lame duck session imply some are exploring potential demands to push his administration to use his executive powers before Inauguration Day to protect immigrants, pardon political prisoners, enact climate protections or ensure bodily autonomy. Despite all the noise, there are opportunities to expand our bases, build power building coalitions, and sustainable movement narrative and organizing infrastructure for our people to move messages and narratives of community care, mutuality, hope, revolutionary optimism and commitments to the battles up ahead.
Despite the red wave, states across the country voted yes on ballot measures for minimum wage, sick leave and abortion, demonstrating that progressive solutions that will positively impact the lives and livelihoods of everyday Americans is good policy. We will continue to monitor the narrative weather in the days to come as the House of Representatives is still yet to be called, and we’ll be on the lookout for narratives about minority versus majority rule, a narrative we predict will be in conversation in the post-election landscape.
Popular narratives include:
Post-election season burnout is real, but it’s an opportunity to get back into a resiliency practice. If you need to recover, Rooted Respite and Roots of Change Agency are holding a movement support space on November 14th at 5:30 PM EST. Click here for more info.
RadComms will hold space for network members on Friday, November 8th, from 1 to 2 PM EST. RadComms member and somatic practitioner Jess St. Louis will lead a brief workshop focused on somatic centering, being present with stress and resilience at the same time, and returning to the visions that guide our work.
Prism and the Zinn Education project are co-hosting a panel discussion with educators about their visions for liberatory education. Teaching Truths: Educators Speak on Justice & Liberation in the Classroom is part of a series that sheds light on the resilience of educators who resist censorship and repression by teaching the full spectrum of histories of resistance. Register here for the workshop Thursday, November 7th at 6 PM EST.
Join United We Dream Action’s virtual Post-Election Debrief on November 13th to hear positive takeaways, opportunities, and learnings about immigration from this year’s election cycle.
From abolition to bodily autonomy, we need to build power beyond the short term. Convergence has published a running list of resources and tools on blocking MAGA and building solidarity. It will be updated throughout the week. Black Rose/Rosa Negra Anarchist Federation has published Don’t Panic, Organize: Meeting the Moment of Trump’s Second Term, which is full of resources and on-ramps to organizing.
Here is your e-day cheat sheet!!
For this special edition of Signals in the Noise: Election Edition, our team is highlighting the areas we’re closely watching this election week. Team ReFrame is zeroing in on election security and voter fraud narratives, narrative contests in battleground states and mis- and disinformation in the lead-up to Tuesday, November 5th. We’ll be back once the (anxious) excitement of election day settles to analyze the biggest news from the day and elevate the new contours of the narrative ecosystem. (Please note: some of the content linked in this newsletter may upset readers. Viewer discretion is advised.)
Get your pre-and-debunks ready. The volume of misinformation and disinformation is exceptionally high and coordinated, which can be anxiety-inducing for many. This means that it will be important to prebunk and debunk against falsehoods, reminding your audience and those whom they care for and about, to resist amplifying right wing stories and narratives. Acknowledge their concerns but pivot to pro-democracy and narratives about good governance, community care and safety and social solidarity.
This week has been full of head-scratching moments from Maya Rudolph and Kamala Harris in matching suits on SNL to MAGA memeifying animal welfare with P’Nut the squirrel’s death. Unfortunately, we’re gearing up for more madness as we reach the end of the voting phase of the 2024 election.
We are continuing to track America PAC's Election Integrity Community, one of the many platforms used to spread all forms of election-related disinformation and unverified reporting. Battleground states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Arizona are main characters in stories on this platform.
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Here are stories (and light predictions) based on popular content in broader conversations about election security and integrity:
We’re keeping an eye out on #TheFixIsIn, which is by no means new, but is using narratives of voter fraud to spread anti-democratic narratives, claiming institutions are going to steal the election away from Trump.
There is a likelihood that other right wing influencers will leverage content and falsehoods to spread xenophobic, anti-Arab and anti-Muslim narratives post-election. Do folks remember 'antifa bricks'? In the aftermath of the Harris rally in D.C., influencers like Andy Ngo, Charles Downs, Tony Seruga, and Larry Jones Jr. are spreading law and order narratives that first emerged during the summer uprisings of 2020. This particular thread re-elevates anti-BLM stories and disinformation campaigns against antifascists and Palestine solidarity protesters and is a popular story in conversations about the elections this week (October 30th to November 3rd). These “law and order” and “safety and security” narratives and stories about potential pre- and post-election violence may also be used as a red herring to unleash state violence against protestors. In the event of a Trump victory, the right’s narrative frames against protesters and third-party voters may by intentionally or unintentionally reinforced by Harris supporters. Which would expose more audiences across platforms to right wing content and worldviews.
Based on historical precedent and research into decentralized networks, we believe accelerationist organizing is happening in private forums. With prominent right wing figures relying on stochastic terrorism to incite violence, instances of ballot box vandalism, physical altercations and alleged voter security monitors at the polls may influence IRL violence. Organized paramilitary figures or open carry “lone wolves” may rally in state capitols and ballot counting locales in battleground states. Check out Political Research Associates’ activist field guide on the armed far-right and how to respond.
We’re monitoring the gubernatorial elections in Puerto Rico between the third-party darling Juan Dalmau and the pro-statehood MAGA-lite Jenniffer González. Dalmau and the Alianza, or the strategic alliance between the Independence Party and the Citizens’ Victory Movement, have rooted their campaign messaging in narratives of good governance against state corruption and extractive capitalism and are offering an alternative for voters disillusioned by the two-party system. Regardless of the outcome, there are already plenty of lessons for organizers and communicators, including the use of cultural workers, intergenerational storytelling, and leaning into inclusion, hope and social justice.
Want to stay on top of potential mis-and disinformation but don’t have the capacity? The Poynter Institute’s PolitiFact is fact-checking the run-up to Election Day 2024. Follow them for real-time updates and stories.
Post-election season burnout is real, but it’s an opportunity to get back into a resiliency practice. If you need to recover, The Embodiment Institute is hosting a post-election embodiment practice space on Wednesday, November 6th at 12 PM EST. And if you miss that session, Rooted Respite and Roots of Change Agency are holding a movement support space on November 14th at 5:30 PM EST.
Looking for a post-election activation space with movement leaders? M4BL is hosting a post-election town hall on Thursday, November 7th at 6 PM EST. Register for it here. Resist and Build National Network is hosting its post-election day assembly on Monday, November 11th from 12-2 PM ET. Click here for more details and registration information.
Did you have Trump working the McDonald's drive-thru on your bingo card?
Welcome to Signals in the Noise: Election Edition #3, your weekly report on insights from across the narrative landscape. This week’s newsletter dives into stories, messages, content and conversations from across the narrative landscape between Monday, October 21st and Friday, October 25th.
This is in no way meant to provide a complete view of the narrative landscape, but it is meant to elevate insights and opportunities.
Shift the focus from divisive stories about candidates to empowering stories highlighting the importance of voting rights and democratic participation. Emphasize grassroots engagement through GOTV efforts and early and mail-in voting. Don’t get distracted by tête-à-têtes about third-party or protest voting as the antagonistic mood could disincentivize voters. Focus on getting people to the polls and providing information to support their decisions on policies and ballot measures that resonate with them.
Use stories about the cost of living crisis to promote narratives of care, safety and security, and quality of life. Conversations, stories and messages about the minimum wage and corporate greed exploded during Trump’s McDonald’s PR stunt, showing how silly, fleeting moments can be used to promote progressive narratives about cost of living and quality of life. Keep an eye out for future opportunities and leverage those moments to funnel your messages and stories across platforms and audiences.
Get ready, stay ready. The 2020 election cycle taught us lessons in pre-and-debunking. Prep content against mis- and disinformation that targets Spanish-speaking communities including Cubans, Colombians and Venezuelans. Track for any new mis-and disinfo based on conversations with your base and what organizers overhear on the doors or in their phone banking.
Movement can still push Harris to enact an arms embargo.Polling data and some stories suggest the potential for a Trump win in battleground states. Allied organizations part of the Palestine solidarity movement can leverage these anxieties and push the Democrats to commit to a ceasefire and arms embargo using phone banking, mass email and faxing Democratic surrogates, disruptions at rallies and campaign events, and op-eds in legacy news media outlets.
Eat your Wheaties. We can and should expect some level of contestation on election results and certification on and after Election Day. Stay on top of fact checking in real time, set up a rapid response space to mull over possible election scenarios and how your organization will respond to threats.
Continue on to check out our full insights.
The dominant narratives about voters and voting include:
We are looking back in order to look forward; by examining discussions about elections in the United States, we can understand how people are thinking about voting this year. Overall, electoral conversations from October 1st to October 25th are down 15% (-3.6 million mentions) in comparison to that same date range during the 2022 midterm elections. Concerns about COVID-19, abortion, crime (including related disinformation), student loan relief, social security, Medicaid and inflation were core parts of the landscape during the 2022 midterms. Senate races in Georgia, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Wisconsin, Nevada and Ohio were characters in a story about electoral power and governance. In 2024, Senate races are not as loud on the national stage though abortion, immigration and stories about the economy are central to the narrative landscape across ideology.
This year, election conversations spiked on October 16th at 901k mentions and October 24th at 988k mentions. Popular stories in centrist, liberal and moderate legacy media focus on Trump, his brand of fascism and his mental state. Content in this spike also included accessible explanations of Project 2025. On the right, we’re seeing stories about Trump’s chances of winning and Harris’ performance at the CNN town hall blend with conversations about Christians sitting out the election, which is only exacerbated by Vance’s recent claims that Harris is “prejudiced against Catholics.” These claims target religious communities and will likely continue in order to boost GOTV efforts in favor of Trump and narratives about protecting religious freedoms.
Trump’s momentum is “too big to rig.” The emergent phrase comes from the Trump camp and its supporters who are praising early voting and encouraging GOTV campaigns to turn out the vote so that the Dems can’t “rig” this election. This is a stark difference from their narratives in 2016 and 2020 where they tried to impede early and mail-in voting, by claiming this access to voting would increase the chances of fraud. Elon Musk is a main character in stories about Trump, GOTV and voter fraud as speculation grows from legacy news media and the Justice Department that his cash-for-votes scheme is likely illegal. Quiet stories include the RNC’s Protect the Vote tour recruiting poll watchers, and Musk’s “election integrity community” which posts disinformation from 2020 to drum up support for a potential coup. Disinformation about “noncitizen voting” and claims of voter fraud can be found here, too.
Other GOTV content includes:
Yes, you read that right - it’s 2024, and slavery is on the ballot in some states.
Popular content during the spikes in October came from YouTube, X, Substack blogs, and legacy news media like The Daily Beast, Rolling Stone, The Guardian, Democracy Now!, and Mother Jones. Influencers and loudspeakers include Mike Cernovich, Charlie Spiering, Robert Reich, Bill Madden, Jack Hopkins and Cori Bush to name a few. This week was big on celebrity endorsements with Sarah Jessica Parker, Stevie Nicks, Lizzo, Kamie Crawford, Eminem, Bruce Springsteen, Tyler Perry, Spike Lee, and finally, Beyoncé coming out swinging for the Harris campaign.
Narratives in conversations about the economy include:
Did you have Trump serving fries at McDonald’s on your 2024 bingo card? His campaign’s attempt to appeal to working class people with a brief stint at the fast food chain placed his economic policies at the forefront. Depending on your algorithm you might have seen different stories. Maybe you saw videos of him shaking hands at the drive-thru, or criticisms of the stunt as cosplay. You might have even seen claims that the McDonald’s e.coli outbreak was a conspiracy to hurt Trump’s election chances. Evidently, this stunt afforded people an opportunity to talk not only about food safety and recalls but the minimum wage and corporate greed. Taking advantage of a PR blitz can be an opportunity to shift the conversation toward progressive stories, messages and narratives for a multitude of audiences.
The corporate price gouging framework comes primarily from political pundits, economists, elected officials and legacy media outlets, spiking in conversation in August 2024 after Harris announced her anti-price gouging plan. At 397k mentions for the last year (October 1, 2023 to October 25, 2024), it is lower in volume than related conversations about the economy like inflation (52 million mentions), cost of living (9.1 million mentions) gas prices (3.8 million mentions), or the housing crisis (2.6 million mentions). These differences in volume indicate there is more interest and attention to issues affecting the day-to-day, indicating an opportunity to address questions and concerns folks have about the cost of living, the price of gas or housing.
As we elevated in The Latest, stories about corporate greed have become part of stories about the election. The right wing media ecosystem is already playing up narratives that are pro-capitalism. They are using nostalgia and upcoming holiday excitement to frame corporations slashing prices to win back cash-strapped customers as a success. These stories combine “Trump-era inflation-free prices” with narratives that cast both Trump and corporations as economic champions. There is an opportunity to channel the holiday spirit into concerted indictments of greedy corporations and billionaire CEOs that addresses people’s inflation woes.
While redbaiting claims are low in volume, we can expect to see a growing number of stories that claim that Harris’ economic policies are communist. Redbaiting is successful in peeling off voters, especially from Venezuelan and Cuban communities, a tactic deployed in states like Florida during the 2020 elections. In anticipation of this predictable trend, there are opportunities to combat castrochavismo and redbaiting in Latine communities across states like Georgia, Florida and Texas by uplifting progressive policies and propositions that will improve material conditions for the better. Use narratives that praise freedom and democracy and smash corruption. Create pre-and debunking content that is accessible in both language and cultural contexts to disseminate across social media platforms, IRL at the salon or church, and on WhatsApp.
Dominant narratives in this conversation include:
While Harris uses abortion and branding herself as a charismatic, relatable leader to appeal to voters in Arizona and Georgia, she is deploying different tactics in states like Pennsylvania to court disaffected Republicans, independents and the white moderate. Polling data shows the election is a toss up and while polls provide one slice of the story, it’s not worth ignoring completely with two weeks remaining in the election season. In Harris’s attempts at building a bigger tent for Democrats and Republicans, her campaign is leaving Arab and Arab American communities in battleground states behind. However, stories about this constituency operate at a lower volume overall when compared to stories about Harris and her polling data or about battleground states. Let’s zoom in.
Journalists, political analysts and pundits, legacy media and organizations like the Justice Democrats and the IMEU Policy Project are sounding the alarm about Harris’s concerning approach courting the right as a way to outsmart them, calling this a losing strategy akin to John Kerry’s loss in 2004. Others are speculating the blue wall state of Michigan is now a toss up or likely a swing towards Trump because of her policies on Gaza. Influencers on social media, with a concentration on TikTok, have used the concept of the “single issue voter” to elevate the belief that the Harris campaign does not care about Arabs and Arab American constituents. These influencers go on to cite her lack of commitment to an arms embargo, snubbing the Uncommitted movement at the DNC, and removing former Congressional candidate Ahmed Ghanim from a campaign event in Michigan. A small share of the conversation is placing blame on Biden for refusing to take action to stop Israel, denying Harris a chance at winning the election.
The Abandon Biden campaign is pushing unity around third party voting to snub the Democrats and stand for truth and justice in battleground states like Georgia, Michigan and Wisconsin. An outright rejection of the two-party system is being leveraged by socialist candidates as they promote solutions against the duopoly and demands for housing, healthcare, education and a living wage towards their base and persuadable audiences. The mood and tone in the discourse about voting third party and protest voting is urgent, patronizing, sarcastic and argumentative across platforms. The influencers and loudspeakers in this conversation are multiracial, cross-class and spread across liberal, progressive and leftist ideologies.
Content and messaging from centrists and liberals repeat the claim that a vote for Jill Stein, or any other candidate on a third party ticket, is a vote for Trump and that a Trump win poses a risk of dismantling democracy. Self-ascribed Harris voters are calling third party voters privileged and already placing blame on them in case Harris loses, while 3rd party voters describe their choice as an electoral tactic worth the effort in building an alternative system. Third party voters and voters who don’t plan on voting for either candidate place blame on Harris for not listening to calls for an arms embargo for her campaigns’ decreased momentum. In conversations about the “lesser of two evils,” you’ll find people explaining why they are voting for Harris, some sitting in grief, while others weigh the contradictions of their political beliefs. You will also find content and conversations about the Democrats’ failed promises in codifying Roe, genocide as their red line, and a rejection of neoliberal identity politics.
In the blame game about which group is responsible if Harris wins or loses the election, conversations about voting employ a competition framework on identity, which is then used across party affiliation and ideology to undermine multiracial solidarity. We have dealt with this trend for many election cycles now and it shows no signs of letting up.
In Vertigo Variations, our 2024 narrative predictions report, we followed a prediction about the rise of the multipolar world. At the time, BRICS was only a few countries, led by Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. This year, we have watched all of the ways traditional U.S. alliances have shuffled. Amidst the genocide in Gaza, many more countries have a heightened interest in BRICS and a new global framework defined by autonomy and economic fragmentation. Next week, we will look at how narratives about foreign policy impact this year’s election cycle, and the ways militarism, policing and internationalism are likely to pose opportunities for movement to make power plays in demanding an arms embargo and ending Israel’s genocidal onslaught on Palestine and Lebanon.
Look for our following Signals in the Noise: Election Edition newsletter for more insights and analysis!
Why do Americans avoid the news? An interview between Benjamin Toff and Eduardo Suarez of Neiman Lab gives a laundry list of reasons, some of which may surprise you.
New York City got its first ‘W’ in what seems like a very long time (thanks, Eric Adams) this past weekend with the Liberty’s WNBA champion win against the Minnesota Lynx. Can we please give the keys to Ellie the Elephant?
No one leads single-issue lives. All of our issues are interconnected and that includes the fight for Palestinian liberation. Check out the Transgender Law Center’s infographic on how trans justice means a free Palestine.
We’re cutting through the noise to bring you the stories that shaped the discourse between Monday, October 15th and Friday, October 18th. Scroll on for an analysis of immigration, Black voters, abortion and attacks against the trans community.
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TL;DR Batting immigrants between both sides of the aisle is a salient theme of the 2024 election cycle. Redirect stories that target immigrants and instead target the corporations and politicians that are using xenophobia as a wedge toward anti-democratic fascism. Message discipline is key; capture testimonials from the doors and from your base to funnel pro-immigrant narratives and values. Utilize the truth sandwich to challenge anti-immigrant rhetoric and racist dog whistles.
The dominant narratives about immigration in the last week include:
The cost of living crisis is being weaponized to spread scarcity narratives meant to influence values and beliefs about immigration. While Trump and Republicans continue to motivate their base by weaving alternate realities grounded in conspiracy theories, disinformation and fascist narratives, Harris and centrist Democrats are shifting their rhetoric on immigration from a boldly pro-immigration stance towards a more conservative approach as a fix for the “migrant crisis”.
Some of the most popular content between October 14th and 18th focuses on stories about law and order. Many of these stories come from right wing media outlets that have dedicated beats for “illegal alien crime.” One of the loudest stories during this window, is an unsubstantiated story which claims that Aurora, Colorado, is overrun by Venezuelan pandilleros or prison gangs. On top of that, Trump has outwardly claimed immigrants will replace Black communities in the United States. The stories become amplified by right wing media outlets and influencers and continue to seed hatred and discord by tapping into underlying fears of otherness and fortify existing white supremacist narratives such as the Great Replacement theory.
On the Harris campaign trail, former president Bill Clinton said “immigrants should be vetted” to work in the U.S. while continuing to assure voters that the border is secure. These stories, messages and narratives pose a significant risk to our movements because they rely on punitive law and order narratives that reinforce tropes about good versus bad immigrants. We predict that doubling down on narratives of scarcity within anti-immigrant rhetoric could result in increased antagonism from existing U.S. citizens and residents - regardless of an immigrant status, country of origin, or whether or not they migrated “the right way.” Another common theme in conversations amplifies the belief that Republicans need a boogeyman every election cycle because they have “nothing to run on.” This theme indicates there is room to combat their scarcity messages by seeding a combination of economic justice and pro-immigration narratives. Take advantage of popular stories and conversations focusing on immigrant labor and its economic impact to underscore the belief that immigrants are essential and keep the American economy afloat.
Trump and MAGA politicians have new targets this election season - Haitians, Venezuelans and Chinese immigrants. Trump’s harmful rhetoric has led to increased real-world harm, but there is an opportunity to further unite immigrant communities around narratives of solidarity and care for one another. Pro-immigration stories by movement organizations are not as dominant as xenophobic stories so message discipline is vital here. Challenge anti-immigrant rhetoric and racist dog whistles by capturing testimonials from the doors and from your base! Showcase pro-immigrant narratives and values by the fact-fallacy-fact sandwich - your best tool to combat mis and disinformation in a pinch.
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TL;DR We are leading from behind. Polling data only gives us a small slice of the story, and the numbers don’t align with what we know about Black men, who vote second only to Black women. Black men are voting aligned with their interests, their communities and their loved ones. Elevate stories and messages that accentuate people power and how Black men have historically shown up electorally.
Narratives in conversations about Black voters include
Black and Latine voters in battleground states are regarded as the constituencies that could sway election results one way or the other. This is a vastly different message than messages shared during the 2022 midterm election cycles, which claimed Black men were flocking to the right (they aren’t) and Gen Z were the saviors of democracy. Trump and Harris have adopted GOTV strategies to get in front of voters of color by visiting barbershops, sitting down with cultural producers like Charlemagne tha God, 20v1 game show ads, or hosting bilingual town halls.
The volume spikes on October 15th at 29,000 mentions is thanks to predominantly right wing media (Gateway Pundit, Fox News, Daily Caller, New York Post, Zero Hedge, Breitbart, and Twitchy), the Wall Street Journal, and Harris’s campaign site. Influencers in this conversation include Tom Fitton, Ben Shapiro, DL Hughley, Laura Loomer, Vivek Ramaswamy, and Lavern Spicer. Content and conversations include criticisms of Harris’ record as San Francisco DA and a belief that Harris is exploiting the Black community, pandering for votes from Black men through “weed and loans.”
Stories about voter disillusionment and exploitation, along with related conversations about Black voters feeling unseen and treated as monolithic by the political establishment, need to be challenged. There is an opening to support storytellers and influencers in a messaging strategy about Black enfranchisement and self-actualization, naming concrete policies that help chart a path toward an inclusive, multiracial democratic future. If not, stories and messages will continue to be leveraged and weaponized against Black men in future elections, likely influencing voter participation at the local, state and federal levels.
TL;DR When it comes to reproductive justice, the numbers and energy are on our side. Double down on what is at stake. We have no time to play about the right to choose, starting at the state level. Amplify how the majority, regardless of their political affiliation, believe abortion is healthcare and are unwilling to rescind their autonomy to an authoritarian agenda that uses Christianity as a trojan horse.
Narratives in conversations about abortions include:
Abortion is not just shaking up the Presidential election but local races, ballot initiatives and Senate races in New Mexico, Massachusetts and Wisconsin. Some incumbent Democrats and candidates are shifting to a conservative “state’s rights” outlook on bodily autonomy, reproductive justice and access to comprehensive primary healthcare. Currently, there is no shared agreement among the would-be elected in these states to support a national bill guaranteeing abortion rights, demonstrating how much the Overton window has shifted since Dobbs v. Jackson was overruled. There are opportunities for organizers to connect with voters galvanized around pro-choice narratives and to move a shared organizing and communications strategy that pushes local and state municipalities to protect the right to choose. We deserve governance that addresses the right to choose and promotes solutions that take into account the compounding crises that face women and femmes including maternal mortality rates, accessible and comprehensive healthcare and childcare, maternity and paternity leave and a safer environment for their children to learn, grow and thrive.
TL;DR Hide your kids, but not from some made-up “trans agenda.” Heterosexism is a tool meant to control all of our bodies while distracting us from the privatization of healthcare and Uncle Sam lurking in the medical room. Point out bait-and-switch tactics that use historically marginalized populations to manipulate people’s perceptions of queer and trans communities. Focus on stories and messages that uplift the abundance, diversity and intrinsic value trans people have in making our arts, culture, communities and world a better, brighter place.
Critical narratives this week include:
The last two election cycles have shown us anti-trans frames have flopped as important issues for voters. Still, the cultural and political backlash against queer and trans people continues without fail. From October 14th through the 18th, safety, security and protection of children are the primary narratives in anti-trans stories, messages and conversations. Evident by the Trump campaign’s ads demonizing trans people and gender-affirming care, anti-trans backlash relies on old narratives that characterize any and all LGBTQIA+ people as groomers and dangers to society, especially children.
Loudspeakers this week include Matt Walsh, The Daily Caller, Libs of TikTok, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, Sinèad Watson, Colin Rugg, Alex Stein, Oli London, MJTruthUltra, Leading Report, Laura Becker and Insurrection Barbie. Their misinformation and rage-baiting content is circulating on Meta platforms, TikTok, YouTube and X. These bad actors are using stories about children and public health to target persuadable audiences, namely cis women, queer people and people of color based on ending “Left-wing gender insanity.” It’s not just the right dogpiling on anti-trans narratives, either. Influencers like Brianna Wu are providing us with a grim glimpse into how self-ascribed feminists and some LGBTQIA+ allies are using narratives of safety and security and stories around access to healthcare to punch down on queer and trans people, claiming their “radical demands” are hurting women’s access to healthcare. There is a risk that this lighter version of anti-trans hysteria will trickle into messages, stories and narratives about reproductive rights, blaming the other (trans people) for cis women’s inability to access care like abortion or birth control instead of punching up at anti-choice movements and networks.
Even well-intentioned progressives use bioessentialist visuals and messages that focus on cis-centric womanhood, making an outcast of everyone who breaks that mold. There is an opportunity to recenter the voices of queer youth, activists and grassroots organizations using winning progressive stories and narratives around autonomy, choice, inclusivity, joy, safety and security to shift the tide.
How are you communicating solutions to your base and persuadable audiences at the intersection of race, class and gender in your election strategy?
How will you use these insights to support your comms strategy?
What are you working on that can incorporate our recommendations?
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We’re monitoring stories, messages and narratives about voting, including voter apathy, voter disillusionment, and voter enthusiasm. We’re also monitoring narrative frames about saving democracy versus fascism, fairness and transparency in voting, and election security and defense. Look for our following Signals in the Noise: Election Edition newsletter for more insights and analysis!
This week, we're shouting out Pure Justice for their Mythbuster series on TikTok. Pure Justice is out there in Houston, breaking down barriers and tackling head-on misinformation about voting. Their latest video takes on common myths around voter eligibility and rights—because let's face it, there's a lot of noise, and not all of it is true. Check out their myth-busting magic and get informed before you head to the polls!
ReFrame is hosting free virtual training on storytelling best practices and mis- and disinformation! Register here for new approaches, tools and practical steps to support your daily work.
We’ve been here before and have many lessons to shift narratives and protect our futures. We are under attack and are under-resourced. But one of the things we offer at ReFrame is parsing through the details to pull up actionable insights. Don’t have time to scroll through hundreds of TikTok videos or read thousands of comments to understand what people are talking about and where they are being cleaved off? That’s sort of our thing.
And we know these stories, messages and narratives will likely endure throughout the end of this year and into 2025. We want to know – what’s your prediction for 2025? Click here to submit your prediction and it just might be featured in this year's report!
