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Narratives of Scarcity are Abundant in Conversations about Immigration
TL;DR Batting immigrants between both sides of the aisle is a salient theme of the 2024 election cycle. Redirect stories that target immigrants and instead target the corporations and politicians that are using xenophobia as a wedge toward anti-democratic fascism. Message discipline is key; capture testimonials from the doors and from your base to funnel pro-immigrant narratives and values. Utilize the truth sandwich to challenge anti-immigrant rhetoric and racist dog whistles.
The dominant narratives about immigration in the last week include:
- Everyone deserves a chance at fulfilling their American dream
- Only the right type of immigrant should get a chance at the American dream
- No human being is illegal
- The government should invest resources in American citizens, not “illegal immigrants”
- “Illegals” are invading America
- Law and order
- Safety and security
October 14 - 18, 2024 | Source: Zignal Labs
The cost of living crisis is being weaponized to spread scarcity narratives meant to influence values and beliefs about immigration. While Trump and Republicans continue to motivate their base by weaving alternate realities grounded in conspiracy theories, disinformation and fascist narratives, Harris and centrist Democrats are shifting their rhetoric on immigration from a boldly pro-immigration stance towards a more conservative approach as a fix for the “migrant crisis”.
Some of the most popular content between October 14th and 18th focuses on stories about law and order. Many of these stories come from right wing media outlets that have dedicated beats for “illegal alien crime.” One of the loudest stories during this window, is an unsubstantiated story which claims that Aurora, Colorado, is overrun by Venezuelan pandilleros or prison gangs. On top of that, Trump has outwardly claimed immigrants will replace Black communities in the United States. The stories become amplified by right wing media outlets and influencers and continue to seed hatred and discord by tapping into underlying fears of otherness and fortify existing white supremacist narratives such as the Great Replacement theory.
On the Harris campaign trail, former president Bill Clinton said “immigrants should be vetted” to work in the U.S. while continuing to assure voters that the border is secure. These stories, messages and narratives pose a significant risk to our movements because they rely on punitive law and order narratives that reinforce tropes about good versus bad immigrants. We predict that doubling down on narratives of scarcity within anti-immigrant rhetoric could result in increased antagonism from existing U.S. citizens and residents - regardless of an immigrant status, country of origin, or whether or not they migrated “the right way.” Another common theme in conversations amplifies the belief that Republicans need a boogeyman every election cycle because they have “nothing to run on.” This theme indicates there is room to combat their scarcity messages by seeding a combination of economic justice and pro-immigration narratives. Take advantage of popular stories and conversations focusing on immigrant labor and its economic impact to underscore the belief that immigrants are essential and keep the American economy afloat.
Trump and MAGA politicians have new targets this election season - Haitians, Venezuelans and Chinese immigrants. Trump’s harmful rhetoric has led to increased real-world harm, but there is an opportunity to further unite immigrant communities around narratives of solidarity and care for one another. Pro-immigration stories by movement organizations are not as dominant as xenophobic stories so message discipline is vital here. Challenge anti-immigrant rhetoric and racist dog whistles by capturing testimonials from the doors and from your base! Showcase pro-immigrant narratives and values by the fact-fallacy-fact sandwich - your best tool to combat mis and disinformation in a pinch.
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Tropes for Votes
TL;DR We are leading from behind. Polling data only gives us a small slice of the story, and the numbers don’t align with what we know about Black men, who vote second only to Black women. Black men are voting aligned with their interests, their communities and their loved ones. Elevate stories and messages that accentuate people power and how Black men have historically shown up electorally.
Narratives in conversations about Black voters include
- The Democrats are out of touch with voters
- The Democrats are relying on racist tropes to engage voters
- The Democrats are hypocrites
- Votes are earned, not guaranteed
- Black men deserve better
- The Black vote can make or break elections
Black and Latine voters in battleground states are regarded as the constituencies that could sway election results one way or the other. This is a vastly different message than messages shared during the 2022 midterm election cycles, which claimed Black men were flocking to the right (they aren’t) and Gen Z were the saviors of democracy. Trump and Harris have adopted GOTV strategies to get in front of voters of color by visiting barbershops, sitting down with cultural producers like Charlemagne tha God, 20v1 game show ads, or hosting bilingual town halls.
The volume spikes on October 15th at 29,000 mentions is thanks to predominantly right wing media (Gateway Pundit, Fox News, Daily Caller, New York Post, Zero Hedge, Breitbart, and Twitchy), the Wall Street Journal, and Harris’s campaign site. Influencers in this conversation include Tom Fitton, Ben Shapiro, DL Hughley, Laura Loomer, Vivek Ramaswamy, and Lavern Spicer. Content and conversations include criticisms of Harris’ record as San Francisco DA and a belief that Harris is exploiting the Black community, pandering for votes from Black men through “weed and loans.”
Stories about voter disillusionment and exploitation, along with related conversations about Black voters feeling unseen and treated as monolithic by the political establishment, need to be challenged. There is an opening to support storytellers and influencers in a messaging strategy about Black enfranchisement and self-actualization, naming concrete policies that help chart a path toward an inclusive, multiracial democratic future. If not, stories and messages will continue to be leveraged and weaponized against Black men in future elections, likely influencing voter participation at the local, state and federal levels.
Abortion’s (Still) Popular (Duh!)
TL;DR When it comes to reproductive justice, the numbers and energy are on our side. Double down on what is at stake. We have no time to play about the right to choose, starting at the state level. Amplify how the majority, regardless of their political affiliation, believe abortion is healthcare and are unwilling to rescind their autonomy to an authoritarian agenda that uses Christianity as a trojan horse.
Narratives in conversations about abortions include:
- Abortion is on the ballot
- Abortion is a states’ rights issue
- Women can make their own healthcare decisions
- Birth control should be more accessible
- The government does not have a role in the decisions people make about their bodies
- The government should regulate the decisions people make about their bodies
Abortion is not just shaking up the Presidential election but local races, ballot initiatives and Senate races in New Mexico, Massachusetts and Wisconsin. Some incumbent Democrats and candidates are shifting to a conservative “state’s rights” outlook on bodily autonomy, reproductive justice and access to comprehensive primary healthcare. Currently, there is no shared agreement among the would-be elected in these states to support a national bill guaranteeing abortion rights, demonstrating how much the Overton window has shifted since Dobbs v. Jackson was overruled. There are opportunities for organizers to connect with voters galvanized around pro-choice narratives and to move a shared organizing and communications strategy that pushes local and state municipalities to protect the right to choose. We deserve governance that addresses the right to choose and promotes solutions that take into account the compounding crises that face women and femmes including maternal mortality rates, accessible and comprehensive healthcare and childcare, maternity and paternity leave and a safer environment for their children to learn, grow and thrive.
All-In on Anti-Trans Narratives
TL;DR Hide your kids, but not from some made-up “trans agenda.” Heterosexism is a tool meant to control all of our bodies while distracting us from the privatization of healthcare and Uncle Sam lurking in the medical room. Point out bait-and-switch tactics that use historically marginalized populations to manipulate people’s perceptions of queer and trans communities. Focus on stories and messages that uplift the abundance, diversity and intrinsic value trans people have in making our arts, culture, communities and world a better, brighter place.
Critical narratives this week include:
- Children are at risk of being forced into transitioning
- “Left-wing Marxists” have ruined trans people’s ability to get healthcare
- Radical activists are controlling medicine
- Trans women are stealing opportunities from cis women
- The government does not have a role in the decisions people make about their bodies
- The government should regulate the decisions people make about their bodies
The last two election cycles have shown us anti-trans frames have flopped as important issues for voters. Still, the cultural and political backlash against queer and trans people continues without fail. From October 14th through the 18th, safety, security and protection of children are the primary narratives in anti-trans stories, messages and conversations. Evident by the Trump campaign’s ads demonizing trans people and gender-affirming care, anti-trans backlash relies on old narratives that characterize any and all LGBTQIA+ people as groomers and dangers to society, especially children.
Loudspeakers this week include Matt Walsh, The Daily Caller, Libs of TikTok, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, Sinèad Watson, Colin Rugg, Alex Stein, Oli London, MJTruthUltra, Leading Report, Laura Becker and Insurrection Barbie. Their misinformation and rage-baiting content is circulating on Meta platforms, TikTok, YouTube and X. These bad actors are using stories about children and public health to target persuadable audiences, namely cis women, queer people and people of color based on ending “Left-wing gender insanity.” It’s not just the right dogpiling on anti-trans narratives, either. Influencers like Brianna Wu are providing us with a grim glimpse into how self-ascribed feminists and some LGBTQIA+ allies are using narratives of safety and security and stories around access to healthcare to punch down on queer and trans people, claiming their “radical demands” are hurting women’s access to healthcare. There is a risk that this lighter version of anti-trans hysteria will trickle into messages, stories and narratives about reproductive rights, blaming the other (trans people) for cis women’s inability to access care like abortion or birth control instead of punching up at anti-choice movements and networks.
Even well-intentioned progressives use bioessentialist visuals and messages that focus on cis-centric womanhood, making an outcast of everyone who breaks that mold. There is an opportunity to recenter the voices of queer youth, activists and grassroots organizations using winning progressive stories and narratives around autonomy, choice, inclusivity, joy, safety and security to shift the tide.
How are you communicating solutions to your base and persuadable audiences at the intersection of race, class and gender in your election strategy?
How will you use these insights to support your comms strategy?
What are you working on that can incorporate our recommendations?
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The Vibes are… Questionable?
We’re monitoring stories, messages and narratives about voting, including voter apathy, voter disillusionment, and voter enthusiasm. We’re also monitoring narrative frames about saving democracy versus fascism, fairness and transparency in voting, and election security and defense. Look for our following Signals in the Noise: Election Edition newsletter for more insights and analysis!
This week, we're shouting out Pure Justice for their Mythbuster series on TikTok. Pure Justice is out there in Houston, breaking down barriers and tackling head-on misinformation about voting. Their latest video takes on common myths around voter eligibility and rights—because let's face it, there's a lot of noise, and not all of it is true. Check out their myth-busting magic and get informed before you head to the polls!
ReFrame is hosting free virtual training on storytelling best practices and mis- and disinformation! Register here for new approaches, tools and practical steps to support your daily work.
We’ve been here before and have many lessons to shift narratives and protect our futures. We are under attack and are under-resourced. But one of the things we offer at ReFrame is parsing through the details to pull up actionable insights. Don’t have time to scroll through hundreds of TikTok videos or read thousands of comments to understand what people are talking about and where they are being cleaved off? That’s sort of our thing.
And we know these stories, messages and narratives will likely endure throughout the end of this year and into 2025. We want to know – what’s your prediction for 2025? Click here to submit your prediction and it just might be featured in this year's report!
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