Here is your e-day cheat sheet!!
For this special edition of Signals in the Noise: Election Edition, our team is highlighting the areas we’re closely watching this election week. Team ReFrame is zeroing in on election security and voter fraud narratives, narrative contests in battleground states and mis- and disinformation in the lead-up to Tuesday, November 5th. We’ll be back once the (anxious) excitement of election day settles to analyze the biggest news from the day and elevate the new contours of the narrative ecosystem. (Please note: some of the content linked in this newsletter may upset readers. Viewer discretion is advised.)
Here’s the TL;DR
Get your pre-and-debunks ready. The volume of misinformation and disinformation is exceptionally high and coordinated, which can be anxiety-inducing for many. This means that it will be important to prebunk and debunk against falsehoods, reminding your audience and those whom they care for and about, to resist amplifying right wing stories and narratives. Acknowledge their concerns but pivot to pro-democracy and narratives about good governance, community care and safety and social solidarity.
Narratives of Election Security and Voter Fraud Won’t Stop on Election Day
This week has been full of head-scratching moments from Maya Rudolph and Kamala Harris in matching suits on SNL to MAGA memeifying animal welfare with P’Nut the squirrel’s death. Unfortunately, we’re gearing up for more madness as we reach the end of the voting phase of the 2024 election.
We are continuing to track America PAC's Election Integrity Community, one of the many platforms used to spread all forms of election-related disinformation and unverified reporting. Battleground states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Arizona are main characters in stories on this platform.
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Here are stories (and light predictions) based on popular content in broader conversations about election security and integrity:
- The Supreme Court’s ruling in Virginia to purge voter rolls is being weaponized nationally by the right to seed anti-immigrant narratives and false claims of widespread voter fraud. Despite the ruling’s impact on Virginians who are eligible to vote, this intentional obfuscation is being leveraged by attorneys general across 25 states according to the case’s amicus brief filed by Kansas.
📌 Be on the lookout for claims of voter fraud that target immigrant communities from China, Haiti or Venezuela.
- There are claims that ballot boxes in Muskegon County, Michigan, have been vandalized and that a few absentee ballots have gone missing.
📌 Be on the lookout for larger claims that ballots are being systematically tampered with in battleground states although the report clearly points out that the act of vandalism impacted only a few voters.
- Right wing influencers have claimed Democrat operatives are engaging in acts of voter intimidation.
📌 Be on the lookout for similar stories and claims that may result in doxxing and IRL threats against poll workers and volunteers. We saw this happen in Georgia during the 2020 elections.
- Right wing influencers are using voter fraud narratives to push their own definition of voter disenfranchisement
📌 Be on the lookout for right wing attempts to rewrite the concept of voter disenfranchisement. They are attempting to claim the term as their own with stories about so-called election manipulation by the Democrats and “liberal elites.” Actual voter disenfranchisement is defined as historical and systemic barriers that target communities of color and formerly incarcerated people.
We’re keeping an eye out on #TheFixIsIn, which is by no means new, but is using narratives of voter fraud to spread anti-democratic narratives, claiming institutions are going to steal the election away from Trump.
Right Wing Watch
There is a likelihood that other right wing influencers will leverage content and falsehoods to spread xenophobic, anti-Arab and anti-Muslim narratives post-election. Do folks remember 'antifa bricks'? In the aftermath of the Harris rally in D.C., influencers like Andy Ngo, Charles Downs, Tony Seruga, and Larry Jones Jr. are spreading law and order narratives that first emerged during the summer uprisings of 2020. This particular thread re-elevates anti-BLM stories and disinformation campaigns against antifascists and Palestine solidarity protesters and is a popular story in conversations about the elections this week (October 30th to November 3rd). These “law and order” and “safety and security” narratives and stories about potential pre- and post-election violence may also be used as a red herring to unleash state violence against protestors. In the event of a Trump victory, the right’s narrative frames against protesters and third-party voters may by intentionally or unintentionally reinforced by Harris supporters. Which would expose more audiences across platforms to right wing content and worldviews.
Based on historical precedent and research into decentralized networks, we believe accelerationist organizing is happening in private forums. With prominent right wing figures relying on stochastic terrorism to incite violence, instances of ballot box vandalism, physical altercations and alleged voter security monitors at the polls may influence IRL violence. Organized paramilitary figures or open carry “lone wolves” may rally in state capitols and ballot counting locales in battleground states. Check out Political Research Associates’ activist field guide on the armed far-right and how to respond.
“¿Cómo llegó este momento?”
We’re monitoring the gubernatorial elections in Puerto Rico between the third-party darling Juan Dalmau and the pro-statehood MAGA-lite Jenniffer González. Dalmau and the Alianza, or the strategic alliance between the Independence Party and the Citizens’ Victory Movement, have rooted their campaign messaging in narratives of good governance against state corruption and extractive capitalism and are offering an alternative for voters disillusioned by the two-party system. Regardless of the outcome, there are already plenty of lessons for organizers and communicators, including the use of cultural workers, intergenerational storytelling, and leaning into inclusion, hope and social justice.
Want to stay on top of potential mis-and disinformation but don’t have the capacity? The Poynter Institute’s PolitiFact is fact-checking the run-up to Election Day 2024. Follow them for real-time updates and stories.
Post-election season burnout is real, but it’s an opportunity to get back into a resiliency practice. If you need to recover, The Embodiment Institute is hosting a post-election embodiment practice space on Wednesday, November 6th at 12 PM EST. And if you miss that session, Rooted Respite and Roots of Change Agency are holding a movement support space on November 14th at 5:30 PM EST.
Looking for a post-election activation space with movement leaders? M4BL is hosting a post-election town hall on Thursday, November 7th at 6 PM EST. Register for it here. Resist and Build National Network is hosting its post-election day assembly on Monday, November 11th from 12-2 PM ET. Click here for more details and registration information.
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